This Monday, the Somalian Parliament will choose a new president, confirming a transfer of power from the UN-supported transitional government to Somalian hands. The development could produce very realistic hopes of stability.
However, such optimism seems tenuous in a country embroiled in conflict ever since rival clans hurled Somalia into civil war in the early 1990s. Additionally, the vote is far from democratic. Only the 215 representatives of parliament will elect the new leader by secret ballot because ordinary citizens do not have the right to vote.
Yet the political situation does seem to be improving. Somalis have successfully established a provisional government, and Mogadishu has been relatively peaceful for the past year. Earlier this month, the provisional government ratified its own constitution, to international and American praise. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton proclaimed that the document would help Somalia “usher in a new era of governance that is more responsive, representative, and accountable.”
Most importantly, the constitution promises sweeping reforms for children, including free education for all until secondary school. The election of a stable leader could solidify the new government and initiate lasting change to education in the region. Currently, Somalia is ranked dead last in net primary school employment, very likely due to the violent conditions of the region. The time is ripe for reform, provided that the right leader takes control.
In general, Somalis have expressed a very cautious optimism. The new change is good, but a lot can go wrong. Politicians in the region have been notoriously corrupt, very often under the sway of violent clan leaders. Some warn that leadership could be passed off once again to President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, who was recently charged with extraordinary corruption by the UN. Additionally, the recent assassinations of two journalists and an airport manager have cast a rather grim pall on Somalian prospects. The Somalis continue to hope but are always prepared for the worst.
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